lignes rouges : Hersh : les USA préparent le champ de bataille iranien

Radar 1er juillet 2008 : lignes rouges

1er juillet 2008

Hersh : les USA préparent le champ de bataille iranien

The Bush Administration steps up its secret moves against Iran

Late last year, Congress agreed to a request from President Bush to fund a major escalation of covert operations against Iran, according to current and former military, intelligence, and congressional sources. These operations, for which the President sought up to four hundred million dollars, were described in a Presidential Finding signed by Bush, and are designed to destabilize the country’s religious leadership. The covert activities involve support of the minority Ahwazi Arab and Baluchi groups and other dissident organizations. They also include gathering intelligence about Iran’s suspected nuclear-weapons program.

Les forces spéciales US mènent des opérations clandestines en Iran et soutiennent les mouvements séparatistes ou menant une lutte armée contre le régime, dont le PJAK, aile iranienne du PKK, les Moujahiddines du Peuple, et le Jundallah, responsable d’attentats à la bombe sur le territoire iranien, ainsi que des groupes sunnites fondamentalistes proches d’AL Qaida...

Parmi les objectifs de ces tentatives de déstabilisation, Hersh fait état de préparations d’assassinats ciblés.

Ces missions secrètes, menées par les forces spéciales qui dépendent du chef de l’état directement, échappent au contrôle et au droit de regard sont disposent les parlementaires US sur les opérations menées par la CIA.

Comme toujours, le personnage clé de cette guerre secrète s’appelle Dick Cheney :

[Representative] Obey declined to comment on the specifics of the operations in Iran, but he did tell me that the White House reneged on its promise to consult more fully with Congress. He said, “I suspect there’s something going on, but I don’t know what to believe. Cheney has always wanted to go after Iran, and if he had more time he’d find a way to do it. We still don’t get enough information from the agencies, and I have very little confidence that they give us information on the edge.”(...)

“The Special Ops guys are pissed off because Cheney’s office set up priorities for categories of targets, and now he’s getting impatient and applying pressure for results. But it takes a long time to get the right guys in place.”(...)

The former official said that, a few weeks later, a meeting took place in the Vice-President’s office. “The subject was how to create a casus belli between Tehran and Washington,” he said.

Les deux lignes rouges d’Israël

A senior defense official told ABC News there is an "increasing likelihood" that Israel will carry out such an attack.

The official identified two "red lines" that could trigger an Israeli offensive. The first is tied to when Iran’s Natanz nuclear facility produces enough highly enriched uranium to make a nuclear weapon. According to the latest U.S. and Israeli intelligence assessments, that is likely to happen sometime in 2009, and could happen by the end of this year.

The second red line is connected to when Iran acquires the SA-20 air defense system it is buying from Russia. The Israelis may want to strike before that system — which would make an attack much more difficult — is put in place.

Pétrole vs Wall Stret

Détérioration du crédit à la consommation US

"The deterioration in credit cards is accelerating faster than many had expected," said Christopher Wolfe, an analyst at Fitch and one of the authors of the report published Friday. "The message we are trying to deliver is that things are going to get worse before they get better. Thus far, credit card businesses have been profitable but that could change."

Fitch analysts are expecting an increase in prime charge-off rates - or losses from defaults on card payments as a percentage of loans outstanding - to at least 7% by the end of the year from 6.4% in May.

L’endettement des Britanniques atteint des sommets

Families in the UK now owe a record 173pc of their incomes in debts, official figures have shown. The ratio of debt to income is higher than any other country in the Group of Seven leading industrialised economies, and is sharply higher than the 129pc of incomes it was five years ago.

Vanity Fair : Qui a tué Bear Sterns ?

At Phi Kappa Wall Street, most of the frat boys are instantly recognizable. There’s the big, backslapping Irishman, Merrill Lynch, the humorless grind, Goldman Sachs, and the straitlaced rich kid, Morgan Stanley. And then, off in the corner, wearing its beat-up leather jacket and nursing a cigarette, was the tough-guy loner, scrawny Bear Stearns, who disdained secret handshakes and towel snapping in favor of an extended middle finger toward pretty much everyone. Bear was bridge-and-tunnel and proud of it. Since the days when the Goldmans and Morgans cared mostly about hiring young men from the best families and schools, “the Bear,” as old-timers still call it, cared about one thing and one thing only : making money. Brooklyn, Queens, or Poughkeepsie ; City College, Hofstra, or Ohio State ; Jew or Gentile-it didn’t matter where you came from ; if you could make money on the trading floor, Bear Stearns was the place for you. Its longtime chairman Alan “Ace” Greenberg even coined a name for his motley hires : P.S.D.’s, for poor, smart, and a deep desire to get rich.

Lawrence Summers : moment dangereux

It is quite possible that we are now at the most dangerous moment since the American financial crisis began last August. Staggering increases in the prices of oil and other commodities have brought American consumer confidence to new lows and raised serious concerns about inflation, thereby limiting the capacity of monetary policy to respond to a financial sector which - judging by equity values - is at its weakest point since the crisis began. With housing values still falling and growing evidence that problems are spreading to the construction and consumer credit sectors, there is a possibility that a faltering economy damages the financial system, which weakens the economy further.

Shanghai : la fête est finie

The Shanghai SSE composite index is off another 1.9% tonight (most recent quote), and is now below 2700 for the first time since early 2007. The index is off 54% from the peak.

La BRI très pessimiste met en garde contre le risque de déflation

The global economy may be close to a "tipping point" that could see it enter a slowdown so severe that it transforms the current period of rising inflation into a period of falling prices, the Bank for International Settlements said Monday.

In its annual report, the central bank for central banks said the impact of rising food and energy prices on consumers’ incomes, combined with heavy household debts and a pullback in bank lending, may lead to a slowdown in global growth that "could prove to be much greater and longer-lasting than would be required to keep inflation under control."

"Over time, this could potentially even lead to deflation," it said.

Les ventes de Chrysler s’effondrent de 36% en juin

The U.S. auto industry’s slide grew worse in June as it reached the midpoint of a dismal year marked by collapsing demand for trucks and sport-utility vehicles.

But late-month incentives helped keep General Motors Corp.’s decline in June sales to 18% drop, better than the 21% drop at Toyota Motor Corp., 28% slide at Ford Motor Co. and 36% plunge at Chrysler LLC. GM’s results, well above most expectations, boosted its battered stock.